Impact of the Volume of Developer Housing Units on Real Estate Prices in Poland: Correlation and Coherence Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26034/lu.akwi.2024.6234Keywords:
Real estate market, seasonality, price volatility, market equilibrium, wavelet coherence, correlationAbstract
This article conducts a comprehensive correlation analysis to explore the relationship between the development volume by developers and average market prices in Poland's housing sector from 2010 to 2023, utilizing quarterly data on the number of apartments released and their average prices. It employs both linear and nonlinear correlation analysis alongside wavelet coherence analysis. Preliminary correlational analysis offered insights into the basic interdependency patterns, highlighting how developer-supplied apartment numbers impact average prices. Wavelet coherence analysis, a more sophisticated approach, decomposed the data across various frequencies to uncover complex, nonlinear relationship patterns potentially missed by conventional correlation methods. The findings of the study highlight significant connections between the variables that vary over time and space, emphasizing the complexity of the housing market and underscoring the necessity for thorough analysis. These results carry important implications for developers, investors, and housing policy formulation, contributing significantly to understanding Poland's residential real estate market dynamics and supporting further research and strategic real estate industry planning.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Daria Wotzka, Lukasz Mach, Paweł Frącz, Bartosz Chorkowy, Marzena Stec, Ireneusz Dąbrowski
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